Turkish Lira crash hits Japanese retailers - Nikkei Review
Karzai has declared it can wait until afterpresidential elections in April next year, further strainingwhat has become a rocky relationship between the allies. Onyx shares closed up 1.
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When Ruhollah Khomeini set up his Islamic Revolutionary government after Iran's civil war, he reinterpreted centuries of Shia theology to include a doctrine called Wilayat al-Faqih, which means Guardianship of the Jurist. The effect of this doctrine was that the Supreme Leader was considered to be as infallible as the 12 infallible Imams that had led Shia Islam over a millennium ago.
This meant, of course, that Khomeini was the infallible leader of all Shia Muslims. This difference goes to the core of the protests, as the government in Baghdad is linked with Iran and Iranian Shiism.
This will have to be settled as part of the resolution to the current riots Gepost door Ghovexx op It was supposed to be a blockbuster day for stocks, if not so much for bonds, and it started off well. One hour after the BLS reported the strongest growth in average hourly earnings in 9 years It was a monetary event first and foremost, and it continues to be eleven years later.
That means by and large it has been a failure of imagination. In the spirit of imagination, use yours to mentally draw in below DXY or some other equivalent eurodollar signal like repo or even EFF Then, moments ago even more pain was unleashed by an unlikely source after Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum's 24 year old co-founder, said that "the days of explosive growth in the blockchain industry have likely come and gone now the average person is aware of its existence.
As part of an extensive, cross-asset effort summarizing JPMorgan's views in a page report issued to commemorate a decade of the Lehman failure, and titled appropriately "Ten Years After the Global Financial Crisis: A Changed World" , JPMorgan head quant has published a section in which he lays out his thought on "What the next crisis will look like. Fast forward to today when despite his recently optimistic shift, Kolanovic reiterates many of the same underlying apocalyptic themes, making one wonder just how "tactical" his recent bullish bias has been.
Echoing what he said last October, Kolanovic writes that "the main attribute of the next crisis will likely be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from market developments since the last crisis". A key feature of this market transformation, is the shift from active to passive investment, and the prevalence of trend-following investors and market makers, which "reduces the ability of the market to prevent large drawdowns. Combining these views with his core competency, market volatility, Kolanovic writes that "these factors may lead to a miscalculation of true risk due to a reliance on recent volatility as the main measure of portfolio risk.
Cognitive dissonance aside, it is a breath of fresh air to glimpse a return of the old, "skeptical" Kolanovic, even if it is in the context of a strategic piece, while he maintains his bullish facade when it comes to his periodic tactical reports.
In any case, here is what Kolanovic thins the next crisis will looks like, as excerpted from the broader JPMorgan report. What will the next crisis look like?
This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis GFC and also the 50th anniversary of the global protests. Currently, there are financial and social parallels to both of these events.
Leading into the GFC, some financial institutions underwrote products with excessive leverage in real estate investments. The collapse of liquidity in these products impaired balance sheets, and governments backstopped the crisis. Soon enough governments themselves were propped by extraordinary monetary stimulus from central banks.
This accommodation is now expected to reverse, starting meaningfully in Such outflows or lack of new inflows could lead to asset declines and liquidity disruptions, and potentially cause a financial crisis.
The timing will largely be determined by the pace of central bank normalization, business cycle dynamics, and various idiosyncratic events such as escalation of trade war waged by the current U. However, timing of this potential crisis is uncertain.
This is similar to the GFC, when those that accurately predicted the nature of the GFC started doing so around We think the main attribute of the next crisis will be severe liquidity disruptions resulting from these market developments since the last crisis: Shift from Active to Passive Investment.
We have highlighted the growth in passive investment through ETFs, indexation, swaps, and quant funds over the past decade, transforming equity market structure and trading volumes. The shift from active to passive asset management, and specifically the decline of active value investors, reduces the ability of the market to prevent and recover from large drawdowns. It was hardly a surprise: Now, thanks to Reuters, we find just how pervasive money laundering has been using what is traditionally seen as one of Europe's sleepiest banks.
If the world's economies still need central bank life support to survive, they aren't healthy--they're barely clinging to life. On the one hand, central banks are still pursuing unprecedented stimulus via historically low interest rates, liquidity and easing the creation of credit on a vast scale. Some central banks continue to buy assets such as stocks and bonds to directly prop up the "market.
On the other hand, we're being told the global economy is in synchronized growth and this is the greatest economy ever in the U.
If the patient is so healthy, then why is he still on life support after 10 years of "recovery"? If the global economy is truly healthy, then central banks should end all their stimulus programs and let the market discover the price of credit, risk and assets.
If the economy is truly expanding organically, under its own power, then it doesn't need the life-support of manipulated low interest rates, trillions of dollars in central bank asset purchases, trillions of dollars in backstopping, guarantees, credit swaps, etc. If the economy were truly recovering, wouldn't central banks have tapered their stimulus and intervention long ago? Instead, central bank stimulus skyrocketed to new highs in as global markets took a slight wobble.
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